The group stages are now completed, the results are in….
How did we do?
Background
Once again we set to work predicting the outcomes for the EURO 2024 group stages
With a target of getting around 70% of the correct resuts
This time around
We now have a stronger basis for each indicator after running it across the last few tournaments
So its time to dig out the old model, update it with the latest sets of data from the past couple of years for each team
Previously I ran a whole prediction league table and shared performances publicly after each game, but it was a huge commitment. So this time to simplify things I have entered into a commercial package which manages that side of things for us. Allowing us more time to focus on the predictions and the model itself
We have set up a private league using the Scorito app and invited close friends and family to join in the fun, its a great talking point
Results for the group stages
Group A
We started off well, with the correct order of teams and almost all of the goal differences correct. Correctly predicting an early exit for Scotland
Group B
Group B turned out as we predicted with strong performances from Spain, Italy coming second and tgird place for Croatia. But we did predict Croatia to perform better than they did, but they missed out on the thrid place qualifiers
Group C
England did finish top with Denmark in second place, but Slovenia claimed the third place slot
Group D
Austria did much better than predicted, with some strong performances, can they keep it up?
France looked much less threatening after injury to Mbappe
Group E
This group turned out to be much closer than predicted, with Belgium not being as strong as we expected and Slovakia taking third place on goal difference
Group F
Portugal did win the group although not as convincingly as expected, a strong performance by Geogia to beat Portugal 2 – 0 got them into the third place slot
Overall, of the 24 teams group positions we got 50% in the exact finishing position, which is not too bad
Of the 16 teams to make it through to the next round, we targeted to get 11 correct
The correct ones were Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, England, Denmark, France, Belgium, Portugal, Turkey
The ones we got wrong were Austria, Ukraine, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Serbia
10 out of 16 correct, one less than the 11 we anticipated
Football is unpredictable and that is what makes it so interesting, who doesnt love to see games like Georgia beating Portugal 2 – 0, showing that hard work, determination and working as a unit can beat flair
See how we do in the next stage
We will post more content about the results of our predictions as well as predictions ahead of each stage
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